Will Trump abolish the H1B visa?

Will Trump abolish the H1B visa?

The Office of the President of the US is one of the most powerful offices in the world. There are many things President Trump can do, by the powers vested in him by us, the people of the United States. Abolishing the H1B visa is a long-winded legislative process, which the President can initiate, technically speaking, but largely has an unpredictable outcome. However in the short term, the President can make it very restrictive for H1B workers through Executive Orders for renewals and benefits. What will be the impact of such actions? Unfortunately everything in life cannot be statistically modeled or simulated, but there are some common-sense fait-accompli consequences of a drastic action like abolishing H1B:

1. The US economy has grown highest from 1950s till 1990s and has become a global superpower because of technology and innovation. Immigration of highly skilled workers has contributed largely to the US economy (US has been the most preferred destination for tech workers - principle: excellence breeds excellence). Tech startups and companies in the US have become worldwide successes, and that in turn attracts brighter minds to immigrate here. They have not only contributed through employment but they have founded companies that have enhanced the livelihood of millions. Cases in point: Elon Musk, Sergey Brin, Shahid Khan, Steve Chen, Jawed Karim, Vinod Khosla, etc. Protectionist laws will only turn away future great minds from creating new products, innovations and technology breakthroughs that is key to pushing the country forward.
2. H1B visa holders constitute approximately 1 million workers (less than 0.3% of our population), who, research has pointed out, contribute positively to our GDP, pay into our tax system, medicare / medicaid, and create highly educated future generation (Gen 0 or 1). The economic impact of abolishing will be extreme: there are few highly skilled American tech workers, and they will now come at a premium (all things remaining constant, that there is no provision made to enhance tech skills for the masses). Small businesses and corporates surviving on thin margins will cease to be profitable and will have to go out of business. Or they will have to move corporate HQs abroad or outsource. If this decision of abolition of H1B was a corporate decision, the statistical comparison of an upside / downside to this extreme action makes it unworthy of any consideration. I daresay there’re bigger problems we face today.
3. While there are many benefits of H1B visa for the US economy, the H1B system certainly does need reform to ensure higher levels of productivity and reduce misuse. Some are detailed below;
1. Vet credentials and achievements of highly skilled workers, and the gaps that they fill, before granting H1Bs in the first place, so we know the best and brightest are coming to the US.
2. Immigration: Today the US allows many different routes for immigration such as family, investment, diversity and highly skilled workers (H1B). H1B visas are “dual-intent” visas: the holders can apply for Permanent Residence. If highly skilled tech workers is what is targeted, why restrict country-wise? Let all nationalities compete evenly on the basis of SKILLS. Why not make it a level playing field? While we want the best and the ‘cream of the crop’ let the toughest and brightest get in.
3. Minimum wage: I do believe in free markets. However, in the interest of fewer applications to process on the already overloaded USCIS, adding a minimum threshold of $100,000 or like can ensure senior and skilled workers are prioritized for hiring.
4. Grant EADs to I-140s, making job-mobility easier so the onus is on the companies to hire the best talent, pay them market rates and look towards increasing overall productivity. If mobility of workforce is ensured, then companies will naturally hire more qualified Americans (benefit: less paperwork). This will also stop companies from holding H1B workers hostage by paying them cheaper due to non-mobility, and the exploitation by consulting and outsourcing companies. What happened to the Republican principles of free enterprise and less-Government anyway?
5. US Masters candidates: Why not? I agree there are plenty of universities around the world that are excellent. If we are going to hire skilled workers from everywhere, why can’t Masters degree holders from the US get an extra brownie point? Atleast US universities will benefit, and it will contribute to the GDP.
6. Create ongoing training program for American citizens so they can keep skills up-to-date to compete on a global platform. Perhaps Fed and State Governments can have a skills-upgradation program for unemployed workers, or perhaps some of our spending can be directed towards coal-workers and blue-collar workers who have lost their jobs due to automation, to go to community colleges to train to become technicians and laboratory workers, etc. - you get the idea. How about some positive reinforcement to move forward the American economy?

Most actions can always be reversed, such as immigration rules, industrial waste dumping policies or financial safety provisions. However some repercussions may be permanent and may have lasting impact: such as the reversal of the US from a global superpower into a has-been economy. Good reason to get fully into details and analyze all angles before a severe action like H1B abolition.